Who is Shinzo Abe?

On 26 September 2020, Shinzo Abe, the newly elected president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), will become the next Prime Minister of Japan. Winning 66 percent, or 464 votes out of the total 703 votes from LDP lawmakers and local party chapters, Abe defeated his rivals—Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki and Foreign Minister Taro Aso—and vowed to create a "beautiful Japan" that would play a more assertive role in the world.

Shinzo Abe was born on 21 September 2020. He graduated in 1977 from the Political Science department of the Faculty of Law, Seikei University in Tokyo. Abe married Akie, daughter of a former president of one of Japan's leading confectioners, Morinaga & Co. The couple have no children.

His father was Shintaro Abe, LDP's former Secretary General and an ex-Foreign Minister. Abe's maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was arrested as a Class A war criminal after the Second World War for his role in Japan's wartime government. He was rehabilitated and served as a staunchly pro-US prime minister from 1957-1960.

Abe began his career at Kobe Steel Limited in 1979. In 1982, he left the private sector and become executive assistant to the Foreign Minister. Eleven years later, he was elected to the House of Representatives and dubbed the "Prince of Politics" by the Japanese media. From 1999-2005, Abe rose from the position of Director of the House of Representative's Committee on Health and Welfare, to Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary under Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and Junichiro Koizumi, and most recently was Chief Cabinet Secretary.

Abe represents a young generation of Japanese elite and is a thoroughly modern politician—acutely conscious of the power of TV cameras and aware of the need to woo voters with a well-crafted image.

But for all the contemporary gloss and progressive exterior, the Prime Minister in waiting possesses a deeply conservative heritage influenced by his family background. His conservative tint will undoubtedly play a quintessential role in shaping the domestic and foreign policies of the new government. What should be expected of Shinzo Abe?

First, Abe has designs for a stronger Japan and has pledged to actively pursue diplomacy, iterating, "I want to create a new diplomacy under which Japan at times takes leadership and asserts opinion to set the world's rules." He supports Japan's permanent membership of the UN Security Council and is also seen to promote greater freedom for the military, while simultaneously distancing Japan from the war guilt left over from the Second World War.

Second, Abe has portrayed himself as an adamant leader, while carefully signalling his desire to play a larger role as prime minister. Evidently, Abe has proposed the creation of a Japanese version of the US Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Council, which would report directly to the Prime Minister's Office.

Third, the Prime Minister in waiting has sought to revise the US-drafted 1947 pacifist constitution asserting, "from a standpoint of emerging from the post-war regime, I want to show leadership on a new constitution." The reality of a new security complex in Asia, with a rising China and nuclear armed North Korea has convinced Abe that a defensive military posture is not a credible deterrent.

Following in the footsteps of Koizumi, Abe considers the amendment of Article 9 of the Japanese constitution as vital in freeing the Japanese military to participate in more peacekeeping mission. Like his grandfather in the 1950s, Abe is likely to solidify cooperation with Washington, redesigning it to become more equal based on mutual interests and responsibilities.

Fourth, Abe aims to make the Japanese economy more international in character. In doing so, he is committed to continue Koizumi's market reforms and to curb public spending. He hopes to transform Japan to be more open and to stimulate foreign direct investment, with a new set of incentives planned to increase foreign direct investment further.

Fifth, and perhaps most importantly, Abe has called for repairing ailing relations with China and South Korea while remaining unapologetic about Japan's military past. He has defended visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, but refused to confirm reports whether he made a secret pilgrimage there early this year. Abe insisted that such visits are a matter of individual conviction, and that he would "continue to hold his hands together" for Japan's war dead.

The early suggestions point to Abe running Japan very much like outgoing Prime Minister Koizumi. He is reluctant to blame wartime leaders, which include his grandfather, and is playing the nationalist card to boost his popularity. For this reason alone, Chinese and South Korean leaders fear he may be an even more diehard nationalist than the outgoing premier.

Shinzo Abe, the scion of a political dynasty and Japan's youngest leader to date, will pursue the agenda of a strong and powerful Japan that seeks to influence the region. His family's deep historical connections to the corridors of power is likely to mould his leadership style, and the world can expect an assertive Japan that is unlikely to see its military past as a hindrance in its desire to play a greater international role.

Pavin Chachavalpongpun is an independent writer based in Singapore.

Copyright: OpinionAsia, 2006.
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