The disastrous Japanese occupation of China in the 1930s and 40s offers useful lessons to the United States as it determines an exit strategy. The reality of counter-insurgency and the prospect of Balkanisation in Iraq has made the development of a conceivable exit plan more urgent than ever. 

It would be folly to write off the Americans and Europeans, while presuming the victory of the Chinese and Russians. They have fallen out in the past. Cooperation today may yet fall victim to deap-seated rivalry.

From a geopolitical and security perspective too, the Himalayas have never been India's frontier. Today, as in the past, Central Asia continues to play an important role in India's security. Thus India cannot afford a passive approach to Central Asia - it must be a player.

The politics of oil and gas in Central Asia, a region Russia has long claimed as its sphere of influence, is more likely to represent a flashpoint of international significance as opposed to President Putin's hawkish comments over US missile defence strategies on the heels of the recent G8 Summit.

Sunni leaders in the Middle East are concerned that their own minority Shia populations may grow more assertive in view of developments in Iraq.The oil-rich eastern regions of Saudi Arabia host a substantial Shia population, while Kuwait, another oil-rich country counts thirty percent of its population as Shia.