Some Myanmar observers have remarked that trying to understand Burmese politics is like tealeaf reading or crystal ball gazing. But uncertainty and unpredictability concerning Myanmar politics and economy is often overstated. Whatever the Referendum results, the fundamental building blocks of politics and power, as well as larger geo-economic and strategic equations surrounding Myanmar are least likely to be affected.

Outside observers who are confused and astonished by Thailand’s persistent turmoil ought to be forgiven. This is a country that not long ago was viewed as having consolidated its democratic rule. Yet for almost the past three years, it has been caught in a roller-coaster of street protests and political polarisation, a military coup, a new constitution, a general election and the return of more street protests, confrontation and brinkmanship.

After having been stationed in Mindanao for around four years, the monitoring contingent must have observed how the Philippine government used the peace process to simply neutralise and tame the MILF, while propping up the Philippines’ international image as a genuine peace partner. In reality, it was busier attracting economic assistance and investment to Mindanao from donor countries and international agencies.

The politics of fear – where UMNO warned non-Malays that violence was imminent if the Malays purportedly represented by that party lost power, and where non-Malay parties in the ruling coalition cautioned that the non-Malays would be unrepresented in the government and Islamism would take over if they voted for the opposition – was shown to be an outdated bogeyman left over from the country’s troubled childhood.

Abdullah’s own “perestroika” (reform agenda) proved to be an egregious failure and accounts for the current developments. The jury may still be out on whether the new Abdullah government can be sustained for five more years. My guess is however long he may stay in the driver’s seat, it is obvious that others will be steering the wheel.