The success of the first round of talks between Taiwan and the China mainland is a feather in the cap of President Ma Ying-jeou, who made improved relations with Beijing the central theme of his campaign platform. But he has yet to display his acumen where foreign policy is concerned.

For one thing, immediately after his electoral triumph on May 20, the president-elect made public his plan to visit certain key countries—the United States, Japan and Singapore—which he knew he would not be able to visit once he was sworn in as president.

This was a mistake. The request put Washington in an awkward situation since it did not want to disappoint Ma and, at the same time, did not want to provoke Beijing. In the end, the United States said “no” and, once that had happened, it became very difficult for Japan or Singapore to say “yes.”

As an expert in international relations said, “You don’t ask a question until you know the answer.” Ma should have privately explored the possibility with the United States before announcing publicly his intention to visit.

To make up for its rebuff to Mr. Ma, the Bush administration is likely to grant him an extended transit visa when he goes to Central America later this year, just as it did for Chen Shui-bian when Taiwan-U.S. relations were good in the early years of the Bush administration.

Currently, there is another problem in relations with Washington. That is the question of a large arms package that the United States promised to sell to Taiwan in 2001 but which had been delayed repeatedly because the Taiwan legislature refused to approve funds. Now funds have been approved, and Taiwan is requesting F-16 aircraft in addition, but top U.S. officials appear to be unenthusiastic about the sale, partly for fear of provoking China.

In addition to the problematic relationship with the US, the guarantor of Taiwan’s security, the Ma administration currently has to deal with a crisis in relations with Japan, Taiwan’s second largest trading partner and one of its most important supporters in Asia.

This stems from the sinking of a Taiwan leisure fishing boat after a collision with a Japanese coast guard vessel near the disputed Diaoyu, or Senkaku, islands. Those islands, which are under Japanese control, are also claimed by China and Taiwan.

While fishing disputes are not uncommon, this issue is particularly sensitive because President Ma, while studying in the US in the early 1970s, had taken part in a movement to defend the islands as the Republic of China’s territory. And, as mayor of Taipei, he had criticised then President Chen for taking a soft position vis-à-vis Japan on this issue.

Now that he is president, Ma finds himself in the unenviable position of having to either adopt a weak position or to risk alienating Japan on this issue. Two days after Beijing protested to Japan, Ma issued a statement in which he made three demands. These were that Japan must release the captain, pay compensation and apologise.

It turned out that a Taiwan coast guard vessel in the vicinity was ordered to leave the scene by a foreign ministry official, apparently for fear of sparking an incident with Japan. Since then the official, Tsai Ming-yao, executive director of the Committee on Japanese Affairs within Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry, has resigned and the committee itself has been abolished.

The fishing boat’s captain, Ho Hung-yi, was held for questioning by Japan for three days. A Japanese investigation report accused both him and the captain of the patrol ship of having caused navigational hazards through negligence.

In this highly charged environment, where there is even talk of war with Japan in the air on the part of jingoist politicians. President Ma will have to navigate carefully so as not to permanently damage relations with Tokyo, while at the same time not appear to back down on issues of principle, in particular, on sovereignty over the disputed islets.

Japan appears eager not to escalate the dispute. It has released the captain, agreed to pay compensation and expressed “regrets”. The question now is whether Taiwan will consider the issue closed and accept “regrets” as equivalent to an apology.

Less than a month after his inauguration, Mr. Ma is undergoing a baptism of fire. How he deals with the United States and Japan, Taiwan’s main international supporters, will shape his presidency in the coming four years and, possibly, determine whether he will be able to serve a second term.