Rising oil prices are putting more pressure than they might on Southeast Asia because more freight than necessary goes by fuel-guzzling trucks. Consequently many governments are unable to resist the temptation of fuel subsidies. A better move would be for Southeast Asia to get serious about railways.
Few, if any, new rail lines have been built since the end of the Second World War. Single tracks are common making for slow trips. Take the leisurely twelve hour journey between Bangkok and Chiang Mai. A similar trip in distance and terrain between London and Edinburgh takes less than five hours, even on Britain's shockingly under-invested railway.
Writing a letter is out of the question on most trains in Southeast Asia. Even putting a cup down on a table is to risk half the tea slopping out, or worse. Wobbly, jarring rides are occasionally interrupted by sometimes deadly derailments and collisions because of inadequate funds (partly due to corruption) for maintenance of track, signalling and communication.
Road-builders meanwhile have had a good run over the last few decades. Broad expressways gird cities like Bangkok, Manila and Singapore, while others thread industrial hinterlands to ports across Southeast Asia. Engineers have erected spectacular bridges soaring high in Bangkok or far in Penang. More are on the way, especially in Java and Vietnam.
This picture is may finally be taking on a new composition.
Thailand's no-nonsense government is dusting off a promise made by many previous governments to double-track national railways, costing $10-20 billion. Malaysia is seriously considering a private-sector proposal for a $2.8 billion high-speed line between Kuala Lumpur and the southern city of Johor Bahru, and possibly downtown Singapore's once grand station if the Singaporean government can drum up some enthusiasm. Vietnam continues to upgrade the railway between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City and is now considering a $32 billion high-speed line largely funded by soft loans from Japan.
Encouraging developments yet disappointing too. There is little sign of politicians or rail planners coordinating with their peers to integrate their national railways to develop a regional railway for smoothly and quickly moving large volumes of freight. Needless to say there is no talk of widening their inefficient metre-gauge tracks to match the broader gauge used in China which allows heavier, faster, safer trains.
The one significant attempt to date does not inspire. For well over a decade the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, and China have been considering how to link their respective railways. Asean appointed Malaysia to oversee the project which has also drawn interest from the Asian Development Bank. All that has come of this is the usual merry-go-round of committees, meetings and photo-calls.
Originally the idea seemed sensible. Build a line from northern Thailand through Laos to Yunnan province in China. Such a route promised to not only to reduce costs of trade between China and continental Southeast Asia. Time and political neglect have whittled those ambitions down to a refurbishing the line west to the Thai border from Phnom Penh and building a line east to Ho Chi Minh. Cheerleaders, mostly bureaucrats, trumpet the creation of a 5,000 kilometre railway linking Kunming to Singapore.
Exporters groan. Prospects for much cargo moving between China and Thailand, Malaysia or Singapore along this circuitous route seem dim. Transit time could easily reach a month, against a week, perhaps less, if the original proposal was funded. Question is who should fund what? Thailand might well argue that the because the line is of international consequence Asean should chip in.
Southeast Asia however cannot afford to prevaricate any longer. Road may be cheaper than rail to build but over the long-term its costs are usually far greater. Take fuel. Trains use less energy than trucks to move any given quantity of freight over all but the shortest distances. With oil prices comfortably above $100 per barrel and seemingly set to continue rising in the long-term on the back of demand from China and India economies that can use fuel more wisely will have a competitive edge.
Sadly that is not Southeast Asia. Thailand is a prime example. For over a year manufacturers have been complaining about high transport costs, typically something like double those of their competitors, because at least 85 percent of freight in Thailand moves by road. Thailand has but four rail lines, but thousands of highways and expressways. Whereas China and India are spending tens of billions of dollars to upgrade and expand their already dense railways.
Then there's the environment. Trucks are noisy, belching lots of nasty emissions making people sick which in turn burdens state, society and business with additional healthcare costs. Emissions from tailpipes not only choke people but the atmosphere contributing to the greenhouse effect and global warming.
Given that the tropics are already hot enough Southeast Asian states, setting aside problems of rising seas, should be working hard to slash emissions. Unfortunately they're not. Carbon, the greenhouse effect and global warming rarely merit mention in political debate or the frontpages. Silly because hotter temperatures will cause more people to turn to air-conditioning, in turn increasing demand for energy.
Noise from trains is less intrusive when tracks are well laid and maintained. Emissions are easier to manage on diesel trains. Even better, trains can run on electricity (an idea the automotive industry is starting to get serious about) coursing along wires from power stations where advanced technologies already on the market can substantially reduce carbon and other emissions. In the not too distant future carbon capture techniques promise to reduce carbon emissions to almost zero.
High-speed rail, like the Shinkansen or Eurostar, is - taking into account environmental costs, noise issues and convenience - a compelling alternative to flying. Emissions from airlines are among the fastest rising in the world and worry some scientists particularly damaging because they are released high in the atmosphere.
A failure of policy results leaves travellers facing long land journeys or short flights, for example a five hour bus or train trip or a 45-minute flight between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, or a ten-hour bus trip or one-hour flight between Bangkok and Chiang Mai. The result is dozens of flights a day spewing lots of unnecessary carbon and using up precious slots at airports.
In Taiwan, high-speed rail between Taipei and Kaohsuing, a similar distance and terrain to that between KL and Singapore, has caused passengers to desert airlines. Moreover with Vietnam looking to build a high-speed line between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh there seems little reason save unimaginative politicians why high-speed lines should not be built between Vietnam and Thailand, Thailand and Malaysia.
Getting Southeast Asia's railways on track and plugged into China is going to cost a lot of money of course. But Southeast Asia has plenty. Reserves are at all time highs. Singapore's government funds are buying up companies around the world. They could do the neighbourly thing and invest in rail in Southeast Asia. The public also has a lot in savings accounts and under the bed. Moreover, investors are salvaging whatever they can from deeply-troubled America, looking to put their money into high-growth Asia. Infrastructure bonds could be just the thing to tap government reserves, sovereign investment funds, private equity and ordinary citizens.
Coordinated development of railways backed by massive investment will not only benefit trade with more efficient transport, cut carbon emissions and reduce road pollution, but also create work to help see Southeast Asia through the coming economic hard times wrought by America's economic mismanagement. More than this, a grand project, much like railways for America in the 19th century or China in the 20th century, would sew the region closer together. It is just the project for Asean under its new charter, to impress citizens and investors alike.

