Over the weekend, voters in Taiwan went to the polls to pick a new legislature. The result was a landslide victory for Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT) and the biggest ever setback for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The KMT won 81 seats; the DPP took but 27. The “others” got five. Before the election, the KMT and its allies owned a thin majority; now the KMT will dominate the lawmaking body of government.The big question is: Why did voters so favour the KMT?
The answer is the electorate gave President Chen Shui-bian and his party bad marks for governance, managing the economy, and handling foreign policy. In addition, massive corruption the last few years badly sullied the President and the DPP’s reputation. In the realm of governance, in 2000 when campaigning for president, Chen promised political reform, a consolidated democracy, clean government, and cordial ethnic relations.
On every pledge, he failed to deliver. Without a party majority in the legislature and facing a divided government, President Chen tried to put together a ruling coalition. But he showed no penchant for compromise and little leadership ability. He badly alienated the opposition and gridlock resulted. And by then, he no longer talked about reform.
In regard to consolidating Taiwan’s democracy, under Chen, international agencies that rate civil liberties, press freedom, transparency in government, corruption and other measures of good government, all reported negative trends in Taiwan. Opinion surveys indicated that citizens’ confidence in a democratic system declined.
Chen ran on an anti-corruption (against the KMT) agenda in 2000. But two years later opinion polls suggested that the DPP was more corrupt than the KMT. In 2004, many officials in the Chen administration, expecting Chen to lose the election, jumped at their last chance to “cash in”. Though Chen won reelection, venality had set in and soon a multitude of his appointees and close associates were indicted, arrested or jailed. Chen’s son-in-law was convicted of insider trading. The first lady was indicted for perjury, forgery and stealing government funds. The prosecutor said Chen would have been indicted, but as president he was immune from prosecution.
Then in 2006, a former DPP chairman and party hero, Shih Ming-teh, launched an anti-corruption, anti-Chen protest movement. It attracted millions. Chen’s popularity fell to around ten percent and in December that year, the DPP suffered a setback in metropolitan city elections.
The last time he ran for president, Chen promised better ethnic relations. But instead he exacerbated ethnic tension to his political advantage - to rally his base and sustain his “populist” presidency. Many would argue Chen oversaw policies of official discrimination against Aborigines, Hakkas, and mainland Chinese. Chen and/or his party even resorted to applauding Adolph Hitler while declaring that Mainland Chinese should “go home”, while Vice President Lu argued that the Aborigines should emigrate to Central or South America. Citizens were reminded of these statements during the recent campaigning when it came to the attention of the media that the government was keeping wives from China from voting.
The economy fell into recession in Chen’s second year in office. It recovered, but not fully. Most citizens perceived the KMT had created the “Taiwan economic miracle” and that Chen had derailed it. Growth was obviously slow compared to what it was in the past and made more apparent when juxtaposed alongside China’s boom.
Early this year, Bloomberg reported the stock market under Chen was the worst-performing among the ninety or so markets it tracked. Taiwan’s most competitive businesses had moved to China or elsewhere. There was a serious brain drain from Taiwan to Shanghai and other Chinese cities. The bad economy also paralleled suicide rates, which went up markedly while crime and juvenile delinquency appeared to be on the rise. The poor especially suffered as President Chen cut welfare spending to avoid raising taxes.
In the meantime, though having promised to improve Taiwan’s diplomacy, Chen caused relations with both the United States and China to turn south. He taunted China with statements about Taiwan’s separate status, hoping a hostile reaction would help him and his party politically. China responded by simply having nothing to do with President Chen.
Chen also estranged the Bush administration, which was early on very pro-Taiwan. In fact, he caused US Taiwan policy to shift from the most friendly it had been for many years to one which was relatively hostile. Voters in Taiwan realised the US was Taiwan’s best friend and protector, and that good relations were critical.
For some, the results of the 12 January Taiwanese elections were predictable - not an easy claim to make in politics. Admittedly the new electoral system, the KMT’s better organisation, and factionalism within the DPP contributed to a KMT victory. But let there be no mistake - it was the Chen administration’s poor performance in office that seriously cost the DPP votes.