The 2006 UMNO General Assembly takes place at a crucial moment for Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi, party president and Malaysian Prime Minister.
His fourth year in power has just started amidst mounting criticism that he was too slow with reforms, too careful in economics, and too uninspired and uninspiring in his style of leadership. However, lately, he had, through the Ninth Malaysia Plan, the expansive budget for 2007, and the revealing of details for the Iskandar Development Region in Johor state, been having some success in parrying such accusations.
In the meantime, his surprising greatest opponent, former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed, suffered a heart attack that brings family and medical pressure into play to curb Mahathir's political activism. The heart attack provides Mahathir with a valid and politically neutral reason to be absent, and relieves Abdullah of suffering his powerful – even if silent – presence at the meeting.
No strategist could have come up with a better solution to the problem.
Emboldened by these developments, Abdullah proclaimed before the meeting that he was not a one-term premier. He had long-term plans, he said, and he intended to carry them out. His break with Mahathir grew with Abdullah suggesting for the first time that Mahathir was no longer the man he once knew.
Delegates have also been told that they should refrain from personal attacks, which would in truth mean not only attacks on Mahathir but also on Abdullah. Abdullah's Cabinet seems to be strongly behind him for now.
Since party elections scheduled for next year have been postponed, the party leadership is feeling secure and will not be encouraging heated debates, but will instead be calling for unity in the face of the general elections that many expect will take place sometime in 2008.
The Abdullah administration will be busy with the 50th anniversary of Independence next year, and general elections before 31 August 2007 are not expected. The fasting month comes immediately after that.
As things stand, therefore, Abdullah is comfortably set to give his all important policy speech on 15 November 2006. This generally sets the agenda for the meeting. All in all, 5,000 delegates from all the party wings and the divisions will be present.
Nevertheless, as always, the president of Malaysia's most dominant party cannot afford to forget that he is the leader of a multicultural country striving to achieve first-world status. He must remain conscious of the fact that the speech to the party must also reiterate the direction his administration wishes to set for the country.
Given the recent focus on the Malay-owned equity shares, the future of the New Economic Policy will certainly be mentioned and debated. Given the topicality of Mahathir's attacks, and highly sensitive issues such as apostasy, the use of English in the teaching of science and mathematics, and the role of meritocracy in education, the NEP will probably function as a lightning rod for most expressions of Malay dissatisfaction and confusion.
Abdullah's big challenge is to manage the irritation that many will be voicing, without leaving too many delegates dissatisfied.
Most analysts agree that the Malay Agenda will be discussed, partly in avoidance of other issues that might be damaging to UMNO, but mainly to symbolise Malay unity. What this agenda will continue to embody will for the moment be less important than the public re-proclamation of the Malay Agenda. Given the uproar following Education Minister Datuk Hishammuddin Hussein's waving of a Malay keris last year, similar stark displays of Malay unity will not be forthcoming.
Besides Malay rights, the issue of Islam, now increasingly presented as being under attack from other ethnic groups, is expected to be debated as well. Abdullah's answer cannot but be packaged under the name of Islam Hadhari, the solution that served him so well in the 2004 general elections.
Other questions that have recently caught public attention include corruption among high officials, inter-faith tension, as well as the reputation of the police. The recent case involving the murder of a Mongolian model and the brutal blowing up of her remains has not only generated endless tales that are politically sensitive, but has put the focus once again on the reliability and integrity of the many arms of the law.
Despite Mahathir's absence, and the expected show of unity, eyes will be looking out for signs of rift among UMNO's many heads.
For good reason, any continuation of the recent initiatives taken by the Mentri Besar of Johor, Datuk Ghani Othman, in criticising the concept of "Bangsa Malaysia" (Malaysian nation) and in attacking the use of English to teach science and mathematics, will carry great significance.
For one thing, "Bangsa Malaysia" is strongly associated with Mahathir's Vision 2020. This vision has, since it was announced in 1991 become a uniting force for the ruling Barisan Nasional.
Furthermore, lacking any vision of its own making, the Abdullah administration relies strongly on the appeal of this inherited dream. It has therefore repeatedly claimed that its goals are the same as Mahathir's but that its methods are different. Abdullah cannot therefore allow any sustained questioning of that paradigm's basic concepts.