Thailand's Biggest Question Mark: King Bhumibol's Health

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Thitinan Pongsudhirak
11 Nov 2007
Pongsudhirak
The recent hospitalisation of the highly revered Thai monarch, His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej, has fixated Thais from all walks of life. Turning 80 this December, King Bhumibol’s health has been frail. He has had two heart procedures in the past and a spinal operation last year. His latest illness stemmed from a cerebrum-related blood clot that impaired his body movement, publicly understood to be a mild stroke. Under supervision by some of the best doctors around, the recent hospital stay has ameliorated his condition. King Bhumibol is up and about, able to stand without a walking aid. Notwithstanding the King’s recovery, Thailand has undoubtedly entered the twilight of his glorious reign. So popular and successful has been his kingship that few Thais have been willing to entertain the prospects of national life without their beloved monarch, who has been on the throne for more than 61 years, an extended period that forged Thailand’s remarkable transformation from a village backwater to a modernised nation. What happens after his reign bears the highest stakes for Thailand at a time when it is going through a prolonged and protracted political crisis, capped by the military coup in September 2006, with a general election slated for 23 December this year. To be sure, King Bhumibol’s popularity and legitimacy emanate from his lifelong devotion to his people and from his leadership by example. The King has lived a modest life, uncharacteristic of the opulence and extravagance usually associated with monarchs elsewhere, and has worked tirelessly in far-flung corners of the country through public works projects on behalf of his people. His demonstrated talents in music, engineering and science throughout his reign have further reinforced his popularity. Above all, he has played a role of final arbiter in a country with a chronically fractious and volatile body politic. Based on moral authority, King Bhumibol has been Thailand’s unrivalled stabilising and uniting force. Political crises in the past were resolved and bloodshed averted through his rare interventions. As contemporary Thailand has never been known without the King around in the background as the last institutional and individual backstop of stability, the country without him is destined to mimick a sea of uncharted waters. It is common knowledge and to a large extent even logical that none of the eligible heirs will command as much popularity, reverence and moral authority as King Bhumibol. Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn is first in line, with several sons and daughters who may also be deemed eligible for the throne. Crown Princess Sirindhorn, who has never married, is most directly eligible after her older and only brother. The role of Queen Sirikit, who is closest to the crown prince among her four children, is expected to be crucial. Strictly enforced lèse majesté law deters open discussions and the pros and cons of acceptable and workable modalities for royal succession. Unlike its equivalents in other countries with monarchies, Thailand’s lèse majesté lawsuits can be filed by anyone against anyone, not confined only to the aggrieved Royal Household. As long as their King is around, the Thai people’s conspicuous love for their monarch has also discouraged forward-looking discussions of what happens after his reign transpires. When the time comes, however, it is also common knowledge, codified in the constitution, that the 19-member Privy Council, currently chaired by General Prem Tinsulanond, a retired army chief and former prime minister, will deliberate and decide with a consequent notification to parliament. The Privy Council has been politicised over the past two years amidst perceptions of Gen Prem’s personal conflicts with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra that led to the September 2006 coup. Thailand has never been here before, and the Privy Council has not expressed any preference for its choice of succession. King Bhumibol also has not indicated his own preference thus far, except the legal revision in 1974 that enabled a female heir to ascend to the throne. At issue in the immediate term is King Bhumibol’s longevity. The nationwide celebrations surrounding his December 5th birthday will provide an indication of his health. A royal merit-making ceremony to mark the end of Lent, a prelude to the birthday celebrations, highlighted by a spectacular Royal Barge procession, took place on 5 November where the Crown Prince stood in for the ailing King. It is unclear at this time whether King Bhumibol will preside over the early December celebrations, particularly his customary annual birthday eve speech. Another issue is the succession preparation. Without clearer indications from the King, the palace or the Privy Council, the royal succession will remain Thailand’s biggest question mark, with far-reaching implications for political stability. It is clear now that Thailand’s democratic institutions are too weak, divided and discredited to effectively oversee the succession conundrum. Unless clearer signs of what happens after King Bhumibol appear, all bets are off where Thailand is concerned when the royal twilight comes to an end.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok. 

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