Should the present or next US government have to choose, it would perhaps prefer the fall of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)-led coalition government than see President Parvez Musharraf impeached. Blame Nawaz Sharif and the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan for this.

Nawaz Sharif has not humbled or become wiser from his last bloody-minded prime-ministerial term, when he disastrously sacked Jehangir Karamat, his then Chief of Army Staff, and made Musharraf, his future deposer, army chief. Nor does Nawaz Sharif particularly remember pleading with Bill Clinton to stop the Kargil War when he opposes Pakistan’s alliance with the US against the regrouped Al-Qaeda/ Taliban in FATA.

As the 10 June US strikes in NWFP that killed Pakistan’s border troops show, America will risk angering the Pakistan military to protect its security interests in Afghanistan. The US threatened Pakistan post-9/11 to abandon its pro-Taliban policy, which Musharraf did overnight. If Pakistan’s fragile coalition government has to survive, it must fit into US security plans for the region. It is unreal to expect the US to dump Musharraf and embrace the hostile Nawaz Sharif, in spite of Musharraf’s sub-optimal delivery on the Al-Qaeda/ Taliban warfront.

Obviously, US-Pakistan relations don’t pivot on Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif alone. Musharraf’s successor army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, supposedly pro-US, approved the military statement calling the American killing of Pakistani troops “cowardly and unprovoked”. Also, while democratic governments are bilaterally uncomfortable, American public opinion remains Pakistan’s fledgling government’s best bet. The US has started sharing intelligence with the Pakistan government, despite its mistrust of Nawaz Sharif. But it won’t over-expose itself removing Musharraf, at least not yet.

A Pakistani politician has a chance at stable power if she or he can satisfy multiple conflicting constituencies comprising the US, the Pakistan army and intelligence services, Middle East oil kingdoms, the mullahs, and the electorate. India matters but not directly. Benazir Bhutto was nearly there but recklessly neglected terrorists and their establishment backers.

Benazir’s assassination may baulk Nawaz Sharif from embracing the US, but opposition keeps him out of power. Without US aid ($10 billion since 9/11), Pakistan will collapse under food inflation and shortages, power deficit, falling foreign exchange reserves, and galloping oil prices. Nor, for all Kayani’s anger at the 10 June incident, can the Pakistan army retain its fighting edge sans US military aid. Both US presidential contenders, John McCain and Barack Obama, seek tougher military action against the Al-Qaeda/ Taliban in Pakistan than President George W.Bush has so far sanctioned in deference to Musharraf. As the heat rises, the elected Pakistan government will find itself more and more squeezed out.

Indeed, the entire impeach-Musharraf campaign seems seriously disconnected from the growing spiral of war in Afghanistan and on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Jehangir Karamat told International Herald Tribune of the 10 June incident that “This is the first time the United States has deliberately targeted cooperating Pakistani forces. There has been no statement by the United States that there was “friendly fire” and that the intention was not to target Pakistani forces.” The obvious message to the Pakistan army is that any collusion with the Al-Qaeda/ Taliban will be swiftly and overwhelmingly punished. Can any elected Pakistani president or prime minister, bar the Musharraf kind, take such punishment?

It is becoming almost axiomatic that, even though Pakistan may be able to hold reasonably free and fair elections, power won’t automatically flow to the elected government. With or without the termination of the Al-Qaeda/ Taliban threat, the US will be in the region long enough to make Pakistan’s military key to Pakistan’s politics and stability. In the long term, the US might want another Turkey made of Pakistan. In the short term, there is even less space for competitive politicians like Nawaz Sharif.

If the PPP-led coalition government cannot learn to co-exist with the cruel terms set by circumstances, it may lose any chance of power for a long time.